Over the last several months, Bitcoin price has followed the creator of the stock-to-flow model’s estimates shockingly close. The result is an even stronger rooted belief from followers of the pseudonymous figure that the cryptocurrency will finish the year strong.
So strong, that a large share of his audience expects the year to end at prices around $288,000 or even higher. With less than two full months remaining in the year, how realistic are these lofty expectations? Let’s take a closer look at the current status of the stock-to-flow model.
Prepare For FOMO: Stock-To-Flow Followers Predict $288K Close To 2021
Aside from Satoshi Nakamoto, one of the most well-known pseudonymous figures associated with Bitcoin today is none other than Plan B. Plan B is most famously known for the creation of the stock-to-flow model that is designed to project the value of BTC over time.
The model uses scarcity and the halving as mathematical inputs, which is then used to predict the path of the cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. The model itself has been cited by most influential insiders, finance magnates, even Fidelity.
Related Reading | NY Times Bestselling Author: Bitcoin S2F Is Flawed, Not Mathematically Sound
Targets genuinely reach $100,000 to $288,000 per coin before the end of the calendar year, and the masses buy it, as is evident in a recent poll put out by Plan B. The Twitter poll poses the question: How much does BTC close the year at? At one point, the overwhelming consensus was that $288,000 would be the winner, but with more time the results have balanced out.
Do you think #bitcoin will reach $500K, $288K (S2FX model), $100K (S2F model), or will BTC stay below $100K .. by Christmas 2021?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 5, 2021
For as many supporters the theory has, there are select few who are vehemently opposed to the model. Some might even argue that the S2FX model has been completely invalidated. Other versions of the model’s projections, are still otherwise holding strong.
But with two months to go until the reputation of these models are really put to the test, the below chart will help provide some clear perspective about what is realistic.
A realistic look at the various stock-to-flow models | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Can Bitcoin Realistically Reach S2F Targets By Year’s End?
Bitcoin has been known to go ballistic, and anything is possible in the current global macro climate. However, the math must add up.
To reach $100,000 or higher, Bitcoin price would need to climb at least 58% from here. To tap S2FX targets, price would need to pass 350% ROI from current levels.
Related Reading | Most Important Chart Ever? Bitcoin S2F Combined With Reddit Rainbow Chart Emerges
A price of $500,000 was also added to the poll, but isn’t itself a target related to the stock-to-flow model. Still, a percentage of the overzealous crowd that follows Plan B voted for a result that would be 700% from here.
The question isn’t if Bitcoin can eventually get to these prices, but can it do so within the last two months of the year, before the ball drops on New Year’s Eve? $100,000 per coin could be possible, but can the world really expect a more than 350% or double increase from where the cryptocurrency is at right now? Or are these expectations overblown – a situation not helped by the generous amount of hype being generated?
Let’s hope Plan B is right, for his follower’s sake.
Are you ready for +$10K daily candles? pic.twitter.com/SSOCRNalJ5
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 5, 2021
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
