Most predictions are optimistic about a Bitcoin bull run considering the expected spot ETF approval and the upcoming halving.
International asset manager AllianceBernstein Holding LP has joined a growing list of entities that are bullish about the effects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2025 if the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“You may not like Bitcoin as much as we do, but a dispassionate view of Bitcoin as a commodity, suggests a turn of the cycle. A good idea is only as good as its timing – SEC-approved ETFs by the world’s top asset managers (BlackRock, Fidelity, et al), seems imminent,” said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani.
In addition to Chhugani’s bullish prediction putting Bitcoin at $150,000, the analyst believes that up to 10% of the asset’s circulating supply will move to ETFs. Chhugani thinks this is plausible because the products would allow investors to enjoy increased exposure to Bitcoin.
Chhugani also noted that Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) currently accounts for 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. However, GBTC has not successfully attracted investors because of its negative premium. GBTC’s negative premium hit 48.57% in December and has continued struggling even though it is now at 13.12%.
In addition to a bullish price prediction based on the possibility of a spot BTC ETF, the upcoming halving is another contributing factor. Expected sometime in April 2024, the halving, according to Chhugani, will wash out “losing miners” and allow survivors to earn big.
Bernstein Predicts SEC Bitcoin ETF Approval by January
A recent memo from Bernstein Research concluded that a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January 10 is very likely. The note described the ETF as a ‘done deal’, especially considering the SEC’s loss against Grayscale Investments.
According to research from TheStreetCrypto’s Austin Arnold, Galaxy Digital expects a $14 billion inflow into BlackRock’s ETF upon approval. This could pump Bitcoin’s price by 75%.
A Matrixport argument for an increase in Bitcoin’s price states that if investors who put up to 20% of their funds in a gold ETF decide to do the same for a Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin ETF market could welcome up to $24 billion. Matrixport’s projection puts Bitcoin at $44,000 or up to $56,000.
Furthermore, the Chief Economic Advisor at German financial services firm Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, believes that Bitcoin will rise as more people consider it a safe haven. In a recent CNBC interview, El-Erian stated that people seem to be shifting to Bitcoin as a trusted store of value as they abandon US Treasury bonds following the Israel-Hamas war:
“You have people talking about Bitcoins, about equity, being the ‘safe asset’ because they’ve lost confidence in government bonds being the safe asset because of the nature of the interest rate risk.”
On bullish projections, prominent financial analyst CryptoCon predicts Bitcoin will hit $45,000 this month. The analyst compared the asset’s price behavior with the coin’s history and offered an analysis based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading above $35,400.
Tolu is a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast based in Lagos. He likes to demystify crypto stories to the bare basics so that anyone anywhere can understand without too much background knowledge.
When he’s not neck-deep in crypto stories, Tolu enjoys music, loves to sing and is an avid movie lover.
